IKN Flash update: Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM) update, Teranga (TGZ.to), a new small purchase, other — Apr 01, 2015
Teranga Gold
CANADA
TGZ CN Outperform
Mine the High Grade First
C$0.62
Price (at 20:00, 30 Mar 2015 GMT)
Event
Valuation C$ 1.58
- DCF (WACC 5.0%)
12-month target C$ 1.20 We updated our model, post our recent site visit and the TGZ’s yearend release.
12-month TSR % +93.5 We came away with a positive view of the mine, mill, exploration potential and
Volatility Index Very High community relations work; good teams make good business. TGZ’s Sabodala
GICS sector Materials mine is a well run operation and the stock has considerable upside. We like
Market cap C$m 219 that... you should too.
Market cap US$m 174
Impact
30-day avg turnover C$m 1.1
Number shares on issue m 352.8
The Sabodala mine plan contemplates production from six separate open pits with
Investment fundamentals low-grade stockpiles processed pushed out to the end of the mine life. Our model
Year end 31 Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E forecasts gold production of 210K oz at AISC of ~$925/oz in 2015. More
Revenue m 260.6 264.4 326.3 351.1
importantly we reckon TGZ will average around 230K oz/year over the next five
EBITDA m 106.9 96.7 134.9 156.4
Recurring profit m 18.7 31.4 51.1 63.6 years at AISC around $925/oz.
Reported profit m 17.8 30.2 49.9 62.4
Gross cashflow m 68.5 61.7 91.8 107.7 The company is debt free, with $36m in the till having paid off $73m in debt last
CFPS US$ 0.20 0.17 0.26 0.31
CFPS growth % -21.7 -12.9 48.6 17.4 year and added $20m to its YoY cash balance. We expect the company will cover
PGCFPS x 2.5 2.8 1.9 1.6 all its costs, invest ~$50m in capital and still maintain a FCF yield of around 6%.
EPS rec US$ 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.18
EPS rec growth % -75.3 62.4 62.9 24.5 The company has considerable exploration upside and should be able to continue
PER rec x 9.0 5.5 3.4 2.7
Total DPS US$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 to upgrade and convert some of the 3.5m oz of additional M&I resources and
Total div yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4m oz of inferred resources into reserves. With success on this front the
ROA % 5.1 5.8 9.1 10.9
ROE % 3.9 6.1 9.2 10.4 company will consider a mill expansion, possible addition of a heap leach circuit
EV/EBITDA x 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 and would look to expand further expand their production profile.
Net debt/equity % -6.2 -8.0 -18.6 -30.1
P/BV x 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TGZ is currently trading at 0.4x our estimated NAV of C$1.58/sh; vs the
TGZ CN vs TSX, & rec history intermediate and juniors at around 0.8x. Similarly, for 2015 it is trading at P/E of
5.6x vs our junior producer average of 9.3x; P/CF of 2.9x vs the average of 3.4x
and EV/EBITDA of 1.7x vs our producer average of 3.1x.
Earnings and target price revision
Perhaps the biggest change we made to our 2015 estimates was dialling back our
production forecast to ~210K oz from ~238K oz to better reflect TGZ guidance.
We maintain that these ounces are not “lost” but rather deferred into +2016. As a
result of our updated model and adjustments we made, our 2015 EPS falls to
Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no $0.09 from $0.10 previously and 2015 CFPS decreases to $0.17 from $0.22.
Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2015
Price catalyst
(all figures in USD unless noted, TP in CAD)
12-month price target: C$1.20 based on a DCF methodology.
Catalyst: 1Q15 results, mill expansion, and heap leach results.
Analyst(s)
Ron Stewart
Action and recommendation
+1 416 848 3512 [email protected]
Mohamed Abo Daff
+1 416 848 3537 [email protected] We are maintaining our Outperform rating on TGZ and our TOP PICK status
among junior producers. We believe investors would do well to take a closer
31 March 2015 look at the name. It is tough to find profitable gold miners producing in excess of
Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.
200K oz/year with clean balance sheets and in decent operating jurisdictions.
Please refer to page 10 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
Mine the High Grade First
In 2014, Teranga produced 211K oz at its Sabodala mine in Senegal. They milled 3.6 million tonnes (mt)
of ore at an average head grade of 2.03 g/t but mined 6.2mt at a grade of 1.54 g/t. The difference of
2.55mt at an average grade of ~0.84 g/t was placed into stockpiles for processing at a later date. At year
end the company had accumulated over three years of mill feed in its stockpiles containing around 300K
oz. Not everyone we speak to like the fact they carry just over $109m in stockpiled inventory, but we
think it’s just fine. In fact we would do exactly the same; processing the high grade first makes good
business sense. It follows a simple rule we learned quite some time ago: when commodity prices are low
mill the high-grade first and when commodity prices go up, mill the high-grade first.
The obvious impact of high-grading a mine is that eventually the grade and production will decline and
with that, costs will increase. Our model suggest that TGZ will continue to sustain average production of
around 230K oz/year over the next five years at total cash costs of around $755/oz and AISC averaging
just under $925/oz. We expect stockpiled production to commence in or around 2023 and continue until
2029 during which time our model suggests the company will not make a lot of money, but that’s quite
some time into the future. We’ve incorporated a 10% expansion to the mill throughput by to 4.0mtpa in
2016, but we have not considered the impact of the possible heap leach circuit or any exploration
success within our production forecast.
Fig 1 Our expected long-term production profile
K oz Au US$/oz
300 1800
250 1500
200 1200
150 900
100 600
50 300
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Gold Production (K oz) TTL Cash Cost (US$/oz) AISC (US$/oz)
Source: Company reports, Macquarie Research, March 2015
Looking at 2015, the company expects to produce 200-230K oz at AISC of $900-975/oz. Mining is
expected to come primarily from the Masato pit, which was developed in 2014. This pit, located less than
1km east of the Sabodala pit, constitutes around 35% of TGZ’s reserves and should be a major
production centre over much of the mine life. We expect the year will end strong as they intend on
bringing the high-grade Gora pit to production in 4Q15. Earlier this month, the company received the final
environmental approval to develop the deposit. Although this approval took a bit more time than we’d
hoped, the Gora deposit is expected to contribute between 50-75k oz/yr over the next four years.
The company’s capital spending for 2015 is estimated at between $49-58m, of which $29-32m relates to
project development costs, including the mill expansion. We classify the remainder as sustaining capital
as it includes deferred stripping and reserve development charges.
31 March 2015 2
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
If we compare where the company’s balance sheet at the end of 2013 with our forecast to year end 2015
there is no doubt, TGZ looks in far better shape. We appreciate that the balance sheet benefited by the
sale of the gold stream to Franco-Nevada (FNV, Not Rated) in January 2014. The company received
$135m in exchange for delivery of 22.5K oz per year for six years, followed by a 6% of production
thereafter over a 40-year term. Upon delivery, FNV agreed to pay TGZ 20% of the spot gold price.
The stream agreement allowed TGZ to acquire 100% interest in Oromin Joint Venture (OJVG), (which, in
turn, owns a 90% interest in the Senegalese entity SOMIGOL) and retire half of the $60m in debt. The
acquisition of the OJVG ground was a major milestone for the company as it consolidated around 1.45m
oz of reserves and has allowed the company to proceed with the Masato mine development.
Fig 2 Actual 2013 and 2014 results vs. our 2015 model & company guidance
Macquarie YoY Pct. Change Company
Parameter Units 2013 2014 2015E 13--14 14-15 Guidance
Attributable Gold Production K oz Au 207 212 210 2% -1% 200-230
Total Cash Cost US$/oz 641 710 709 11% 0% 650-700
AISC US$/oz 1,033 865 923 -16% 7% 900-975
Sustaining Capital US$m 69.1 18.9 24.0 -73% 27% 20-26
Development Capital US$m - - 25.0 n/a 100% 29-32
Total Capital US$m 69.1 18.9 49.0 -73% 159% 49-58
G&A US$m 14.7 15.6 16.0 6% 2% 15-16
Exploration Expense US$m 5 .4 2 .8 2 .0 -49% -28% n/a
Finance Cost US$m 12.4 9 .5 - -24% -100% -
YE Cash & Equivalents US$m 15.0 35.8 40.8 139% 14%
Debt US$m 74.4 3 .9 - -95% -100%
Working Capital US$m (13.2) 30.7 43.7 -332% 43%
Total Assets US$m 628.6 726.3 728.0 16% 0%
Total Liabilities US$m 158.3 210.4 184.8 33% -12%
Source: Company reports, Macquarie Research, March 2015
Where Exploration is Concerned, Patience and Perseverance are Key
There is no shortage of exploration opportunity on the TGZ holdings but it seems windfall discoveries
have been tough to come by. Over the past four years, the company has spent some $56.5m on work
ranging from initial prospecting and geological and geophysical surveys, through prospect drilling and to
date have defined resources on eleven (11) separate targets that do not currently factor into the mine
plan. All in, the land holdings cover a massive area measuring over 1,300 km2 when you combine the
exploration licenses with the Sabodala and OJVG exploitation licenses.
There’s no question, the neighbourhood is the right one for finding gold deposits. Teranga’s Senegalese
licenses cover an arm of the Birimian volcano-sedimentary terrain that hosts many of the major West
African gold deposits. Teranga’s properties are comprised of volcanic dominated rocks to the west and
sediment dominated rocks to the east. Major crustal NNE trending shears control both the stratigraphy
and gold deposits.
The deposits are, for the most part, quartz-carbonate veins with variable amounts of coarse nuggetty
gold and are therefore challenging to explore and difficult to model. In the western volcanic domain gold
bearing veins occupy brittle structures, whereas in the eastern domain the sediment hosted deposits
tend to be shear controlled. Adding quality resources and reserves in an environment like this takes
patience and perseverance, but make no mistake the potential for a windfall discovery is there.
Two areas of focus that we examined during our site visit were particularly noteworthy. First drilling in
the Golouma NW target appears to have identified a new vein corridor and looks likely to increase the
size of this important resource. Currently Golouma accounts for around 17% of TGZ’s reserves and has
an average grade of around 2.24 g/t. Even incremental gains here can add additional, high grade
resources that have a good chance of moving into reserves. On February 23rd the company released
some results from this work that included intercepts including 12m @ 3.66 g/t from 10m down-hole, 5m
@ 20.81 g/t from 131m down hole and 13m @ 4.61 g/t from 61m down-hole.
31 March 2015 3
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
A second prospect that shows promise is the Masato NE area, where trenching and soils have confirmed
a 2km NE trending zone located 1km northeast of the Masato deposit. Here trenching has defined a 30
to 60m wide altered shear zone that contains a 2 to 12m wide, high grade core returning values such as
12m @ 3.66 g/t, 9m @ 1.57g/t, 5m @ 20.92 g/t and 13m @ 4.61 g/t. A 26-hole drill program was
completed on the target area and assay results are pending. This could represent an entirely new
resource in close proximity to the mine infrastructure.
Fig 3 Teranga district prospects
Source: Company reports, Macquarie Research, March 2015
Reserves & Resources
At year-end 2014, TGZ reported mineral reserves on six separate pits and along with stockpiled ore
containing an estimated 2.62m oz (59.68 at 1.36 g/t). YoY reserves declined 7% due to production
depletion from the Sabodala pit. The average grade processed during the year was 2.03 g/t or 39% than
the reserve grade resulting in a YoY decline in the reserve grade of 7%.
31 March 2015 4
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
M&I resources, which are inclusive of reserves decreased only 2% YoY. Approximately 90% of the M&I
resources are located at planned deposits with the remaining 10% from a prospects with modest, initial
resources. Inferred resources declined by about 10% YoY.
It is interesting to note that less than one-third of the total mineral inventory (TMI) of 8.4m oz is currently
classified as reserves, which means that TGZ has considerable opportunity to expand the reserve base
by virtue of a combination of additional drilling and optimizing the mine plan. This activity has been
focused on the higher grade deposits including Gora, Golouma and Kerekounda which together have a
TMI of 1.9m oz (19.6mt at 3.03 g/t), more than double the average reserve grade and almost 50% higher
than the average grade processed in 2014.
Fig 4 Comparison of 2013 vs. 2014 reserves and resources
KK oozz AAuu 2P Reserves gg//ttAAuu KK oozz AAuu M&I Resources gg//ttAAuu KK oozz AAuu Inferred Resources gg//ttAAuu
3.0 1.8 8.0 1.8 4.0 1.6
2.4 1.6 1.6
6.0 Projects 3.0 1.4
Projects
1.8 1.4 1.4
4.0 2.0 1.2
Planned
1.2 Pits 1.2 1.2
Planned
Planned
2.0 Pits 1.0 1.0
0.6 1.0 1.0 Pits
- 0.8 - 0.8 - 0.8
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
Source: Company reports, Macquarie Research, March 2015
CSR Best in Class
Two items that rarely become a topic of conversation with investors unless of course they go wrong are
safety and community relations. Having visited our fair share of mines we would be remiss if we didn’t
mention them here and give a special shout out to the TGZ team for their exemplary work on these
fronts. Considering safety first, Sabodala has not recorded a loss-time incident (LTI) in roughly a year
and a half. That is a remarkable achievement for a mine and tells us that the management culture and
employee engagement are both working at the highest level. It was evident to us as we witnessed a well
maintained site and crew that, despite coming from all corners of the globe, all seemed genuinely happy
to be either at work or enjoying the camp facilities in their off hours. TGZ consequently enjoys low
turnover among expat staff and local workers alike. Make no mistake, a safe and pleasant working
environment translates directly into efficiency and low costs.
On the matter of corporate social responsibility (CSR), stating we were impressed does not do their
program justice. TGZ program, which costs roughly $2m per year, has had a remarkable impact on the
lives of the local residents and does not go unrecognized at the highest levels of government. Mine staff
work in collaboration with the surrounding communities to identify community based projects that will be
sustainable and provide long-lasting benefits. In addition to the usual education, health care and water
and infrastructure, TGZ has engaged a team of around 450 local women to operate and manage local
market gardens. In 2014 they produced some 72 tons of fresh produce, more than enough to provide for
the local population and now are looking at a transportation network to bring their product to communities
in the district.
TGZ’s work on the CSR front is something that both the team and investors alike can be proud of.
Mining attracts a good deal of criticism for its checkered track record; at Sabodala, TGZ has set a
standard that the industry would do well to adopt.
31 March 2015 5
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
Revised Valuation and Estimates
Figure 5 below compares our old vs. new estimates relative to TGZ’s 2015 guidance. Perhaps the
biggest adjustment we made was to our expected production profile in 2015 where we lowered our
expectation on ounces produced to 210K oz from 238K oz. We maintain that these ounces are not “lost”
but rather deferred into +2016.
Fig 5 Our New vs. old estimates relative TGZ guidance
Juniors TGZ
2015 Unit Guidance Macq. Old Macq. New % chg
Gold Operations
Gold Production k oz 200-230 2 38 2 10 -12%
Total Cash Costs $/oz 650-700 7 18 7 16 0%
AISC $/oz 900-975 9 29 9 23 -1%
D&A $/oz 260-275 2 28 2 50 10%
Financials
Expensed Exploration $m 1-2 16 2 -88%
G&A $m 15-16 1 2 1 6 33%
Finance Costs $m NA 0 0 11%
Capex $m 49-58 4 0 4 9 23%
Source: Company reports, Macquarie Research, March 2015
As a result of our updated model and adjustments we made, our 2015 EPS falls to $0.09 from $0.10
previously and 2015 CFPS decreases to $0.17 from $0.22 (Figure 6). For 2016, we remain bullish on
TGZ with EPS/CFPS that are higher than street consensus at $0.14/$0.26 vs. $0.07/$0.21.
Fig 6 Our New vs. old estimates compared to consensus
EPS CFPS
Unit 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
TGZ
Prior $/sh 0 .10 0 .13 0 .18 0 .22 0 .28 0 .35
New $/sh 0 .09 0 .14 0 .18 0 .17 0 .26 0 .31
Consensus $/sh 0.07 0.07 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.20
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, March 2015
We value TGZ’s Sabodala at ~C$1.70/sh using a long-term gold price of $1,250/oz. Additionally, we
attribute ~C$0.70/sh to cash on hand and unmined ounces in the ground, which is more than offset by
~C$0.85/sh in corporate drag. Our total NAV, therefore, is C$1.58/sh and we apply a ~0.8x multiple for a
target price of C$1.20/sh over the next 12 months. Assuming a flat, $1,200/oz gold price, TGZ’s NAV
drops to C$1.15 (~85% premium based on last closing price).
31 March 2015 6
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
Fig 7 Our NAV highlights significant upside. At spot gold, TGZ trades at 0.6x NAV
5.0% Att. Interest 2016 NAV/shr
Sabodala 90.0% 1.72
Operations 90.0% 1.72
Cash 100.0% 0.16
Resources 100.0% 0.53
Corporate (0.84)
Total 90.0% $1.58
Target Price Multiple 2016 Price/sh
Sabodala 0 .85 1.46
Operations 0 .85 1.46
Cash 1 .00 0.16
Resources 0 .54 0.29
Corporate 0 .85 (0.71)
Implied TP 0.76x $1.20
Source: Macquarie Research, March 2015
Fig 8 Sensitivity to gold price
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
)h $1.5
s
/
$
C
( V $1.0
A
N
$0.5
$0.0
$900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500
Gold Price ($/oz)
Source: Macquarie Research, March 2015
31 March 2015 7
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
Teranga Gold (TGZ CN, Outperform, TP: C$1.20)
Teranga Gold Corporation Target Price: $1.20 NAV (C$M): 5 57.4 Rating: Outperform
TGZ CN Equity NAV/sh (C$): $1.58
Commodity & FX 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Market Data
Au (US$/oz) 1,266 1,255 1,363 1,440 1,460 Close Price $0.63
CAD/USD 0.91 0.80 0.72 0.72 0.72 52-Week High $0.93
Resources & Reserves P&P M&I 52-Week Low $0.38
Tonnes Grade Gold Tonnes Grade Gold Dividend Yield 0.0%
000 t g/t 000 oz 000 t g/t 000 oz Mkt Cap (C$M) 2 22.0
Sabodala 2 5,400.0 1 .32 1 ,079.2 5 6,410.0 1 .36 2 ,460.2 P/NAV
Somigol 3 4,280.0 1 .39 1 ,532.0 8 4,770.0 1 .32 3 ,606.4 Current 0.40x
Total 5 9,680.0 1 .36 2 ,611.2 1 41,180.0 1 .34 6 ,066.6 Valuation 0.76x
Financials (US$'000) 2014A 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015E 2016E 2017E
Revenue 2 60,588 6 1,530 5 9,551 6 3,015 8 0,278 2 64,374 3 26,283 3 51,056
Growth (Period/Period) -12.5% -19.6% -3.2% 5.8% 27.4% 1.5% 23.4% 7.6%
Gross Profit 1 22,472 2 4,156 2 2,275 2 5,566 4 0,660 1 12,656 1 50,909 1 72,447
Gross Margin (%) 47.0% 39.3% 37.4% 40.6% 50.6% 42.6% 46.3% 49.1%
EBITDA/Operating Income 1 06,851 2 0,156 1 8,275 2 1,566 3 6,660 9 6,656 1 34,909 1 56,447
-35.1% -47.3% -9.3% 18.0% 70.0% -9.5% 39.6% 16.0%
EBIT 3 4,211 7 ,631 5 ,510 8 ,554 2 0,559 4 2,254 6 7,734 8 4,449
Adj. Net Income 1 8,656 5 ,195 4 ,190 6 ,490 1 5,495 3 1,370 5 1,100 6 3,637
Capex ( 18,913) ( 11,250) ( 11,250) ( 11,250) ( 15,250) ( 49,000) ( 25,000) ( 20,000)
Cash from Operations 4 9,009 1 2,183 1 1,056 1 3,287 2 5,200 6 1,726 9 1,751 1 07,715
Current Debt 3 ,946 1 ,877 - - - - - -
LT Debt - - - - - - - -
Total Debt 3 ,946 1 ,877 - - - - - -
Cash & Equivalents 3 5,810 3 3,989 3 1,917 3 3,955 4 3,905 4 3,905 1 10,655 1 98,370
Adj. EPS - FD (US$/sh) $0.05 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.04 $0.09 $0.14 $0.18
CFPS - FD (US$/sh) $0.20 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.07 $0.17 $0.26 $0.31
Valuation 2014A 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015E 2016E 2017E
P/E 9.08x 9.78x 8.77x 6.99x 5.59x 5.59x 3.43x 2.75x
Target 17.29x 18.63x 16.71x 13.32x 10.64x 10.64x 6.53x 5.25x
P/CFPS 2.48x 2.61x 2.37x 2.37x 2.92x 2.92x 1.91x 1.60x
Target 4.73x 4.98x 4.51x 4.51x 5.57x 5.57x 3.64x 3.05x
P/FCF 5.63x 9.30x 4.88x 5.97x 13.77x 13.77x 2.63x 2.00x
Target 10.72x 17.72x 9.30x 11.38x 26.23x 26.23x 5.00x 3.81x
EV/EBITDA 1.51x 1.64x 1.64x 1.64x 1.67x 1.67x 1.20x 1.03x
Target 1.51x 1.64x 1.64x 1.64x 1.67x 1.67x 1.20x 1.03x
Total Debt/EBITDA 0.03x 0.02x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x
LT Debt/EBITDA 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x 0.00x
Source: Thomson ONE, company reports, Macquarie Research, March 2015
31 March 2015 8
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
Macquarie Quant View
The quant model currently holds a strong positive view on Teranga Gold. Attractive
Displays where the
The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is under-
company’s ranked based on
priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest style exposure is
Earnings Momentum, indicating this stock has received earnings a s l the fundamental consensus
downgrades and is not well liked by sell side analysts. m n e t P M r a ic c e q u T a a r r i g e e ’s t Q an u d a ntitative
97/1094 a Alpha model.
d
Global rank in u n F T (C w a o n r a a d n a k ) i n a g n s d : G Lo lo c b a a l l m s a e r c k t e o t r
Materials (Materials)
Quant
% of BUY recommendations 36% (4/11)
Local market rank Global sector rank
Number of Price Target downgrades 1
Number of Price Target upgrades 2
Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model
A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution
(higher is better). to the current overall Alpha score.
Teranga Gold 1.2 Teranga Gold
Centamin 0.2 Centamin
Acacia Mining -0.7 Acacia Mining
IAMGOLD Corp -1.7 IAMGOLD Corp
Harmony Gold Mining Co -1.9 Harmony Gold Mining Co
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Price Quality
Momentum Momentum
Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return
The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in
signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.
revisions. Current score shown below.
Teranga Gold
Teranga Gold 0.9
Centamin
Centamin -0.7
Acacia Mining
Acacia Mining -0.1
IAMGOLD Corp
IAMGOLD Corp -0.6
Harmony Gold Mining Co -0.4 Harmony Gold Mining Co
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return
What drove this Company in the last 5 years How it looks on the Alpha model
Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better)
returns over the last 5 years. and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market.
⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒
Normalized Percentile relative Percentile relative
Operating Margin NTM 48% Score to sector(/1094) to market(/476)
Alpha Model Score 1.16
FCF Yield FY0 36% Valuation 1.17
Price to Cash FY0 32% Growth 0.01
Profitability 0.08
Net Buybacks to Mkt Cap 31%
Earnings Momentum -0.20
CPS Growth FY1 -31% Price Momentum -0.07
Incremental Capex -31% Quality -0.04
Capital & Funding -0.07
Return on Equity FY1 -33% Liquidity -1.77
Return on Assets FY1 -45% Risk -0.59
Technicals & Trading -0.56
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0 01 50 100 0 50 100
0 1
Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and
screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([email protected])
31 March 2015 9
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical price All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return movements. adjustments made:
Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS
to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors impairments & IFRS interest expense
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal should be aware this stock is highly speculative. Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
Macquarie – Asia/Europe High – stock should be expected to move up or minority interests
Outperform – expected return >+10% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
Underperform – expected return <-10%
ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
Medium – stock should be expected to move up or ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
Macquarie First South - South Africa down at least 30–40% in a year. total assets
Outperform – expected return >+10% ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Low–medium – stock should be expected to move Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
Underperform – expected return <-10% up or down at least 25–30% in a year. *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number
Macquarie - Canada of shares
Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Low – stock should be expected to move up or
Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return down at least 15–25% in a year. All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are
Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting
only Standards).
Macquarie - USA
Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 Recommendations – 12 months
index return Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index Fundamental Analyst recommendations
return
Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000
index return
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 December 2014
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 51.80% 58.06% 45.07% 44.42% 60.54% 46.81% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.29% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 31.80% 27.37% 30.99% 50.10% 35.37% 33.51% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 16.39% 14.57% 23.94% 5.48% 4.08% 19.68% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.44% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
TGZ CN vs TSX, & rec history
(all figures in CAD currency unless noted)
Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2015
12-month target price methodology
TGZ CN: C$1.20 based on a DCF methodology
Company-specific disclosures:
TGZ CN: MACQUARIE CAPITAL MARKETS CANADA LTD./MARCHéS FINANCIERS MACQUARIE CANADA LTéE. or one of its affiliates managed or co-
managed a public offering of securities of Teranga Gold Corp in the past 12 months, for which it received compensation. The primary analyst for Teranga
Gold has visited its material operations and development assets within the past year; the company has furnished local transportation and accommodations
as part of these site visits.
Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price
30-Jan-2015 TGZ CN Outperform C$1.20
07-Apr-2014 TGZ CN Outperform C$1.40
Target price risk disclosures:
TGZ CN: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic
mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic
conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange
rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of
these exposures.
Analyst certification:
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compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The
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and objectivity in making any recommendations.
General disclaimers:
31 March 2015 10
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
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31 March 2015 11
Macquarie Research Teranga Gold
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