IKN Flash update: Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L) comment — Jul 03, 2014
Company Flash UK
03 July 2014
Minera Dmitry Kalachev +44 20 7523 4643
[email protected]
Speculative Buy Peter Mallin-Jones +44 20 7523 4645
MIRL: 11p [email protected]
Target: 20p
KEY CHANGES Basic Resources - Mining - Gold Mining
TP EPS FY0 EPS FY1
Ollachea moves closer to construction
0.0% 425% 153%
COMPANY STATISTICS
Shares Out (m): 229 What’s new?
Market Cap: £25.46m
Minera IRL received a construction permit for Ollachea on 30 June. It is the final
EV: £65.97m
major governmental approval required before construction of the project can begin
(subject to financing). As previously guided, the company has also received a
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
Committed Letter of Offer from Macquarie Bank for a Project Loan Facility of
US$100m. After consolidation of the existing debt of US$30m, the remaining
US$70m can be used towards the US$177m pre-production capex at Ollachea.
The existing draw-down debt facility of US$30m that was due to be repaid to
Macquarie on 30 June 2014 has been postponed to 30 June 2015. There will be a
US$1.5m upfront fee and Minera IRL will issue 26m options to Macquarie (the
existing 18.8m options held by Macquarie will be cancelled).
Impact on the Canaccord Genuity view
These are important milestones in the company’s development, and they were
reached in line with the guided schedule indicating that the group is well in control
of the project development. Although market conditions for financing junior gold
—— Minera projects remain challenging, the official letter of commitment from Macquarie to part
—— Rel to FTSE AIM All-Share
fund the project should help the negotiation process for the remainder of the
Source: Thomson Datastream
required funding. The agreed extension of the debt facility buys more time to
complete the financing negotiations.
The exploration upside, evident by the existence of the Concurayoc Zone (inferred
resource 0.9Moz) and the mineralisation being open at depth and along strike, may
extend Ollachea’s mine life. A one-year extension would increase our Minera NAV
estimate by 13% to 50p (unrisked).
The recently released Ollachea feasibility study update showed a 17% increase in
NPV as the company was able to defer underground development capex and
increase production in the first two years. Given that operating costs were presented
in Q3/12 US$ terms, we have inflated costs by 3% pa until first gold pour in 2016.
This has offset the rise in project valuation so our Ollachea NPV remains broadly
unchanged at 38p/share (10% discount rate).
Valuation
Minera trades at US$23/oz of resource, below our global average of US$38/oz. We
maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation and 20p target price, which is based
on 0.45x our NAV estimate at CG’s forward gold price.
Share performance catalyst
Update on Ollachea financing (Q3/14); Q2/14 results (August 2014).
This research report is produced by Canaccord Genuity Limited which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
This is non-independent research and a marketing communication under the FCA Conduct of Business rules.
For important information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document.
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03 July 2014
Figure 1: Financial and operational summary
Minera IRL - Summary
.
Valuation summary Price Deck Spot Price
Production Summary At CG ForwardFlat US$1330/oz
Year End Dec 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Discount rate US$m p/shr US$m p/shr
Corihuarmi Production [koz] 25 21 15 - - Corihuarmi (100%) 5% 3 1 4 1
Corihuarmi Cash Costs [$/oz] 904 979 1,091 - - Don Nicolas (51%) 7% 39 10 37 9
Corihuarmi Capex [$m] 0 1 1 - - Ollachea (100%) 10% 148 38 126 32
Don Nicolas Production [koz] - - 26 53 53 Exploration 31 8 31 8
Don Nicolas Cash Costs [$/oz] - - 595 597 597 Total NPV (10%) 221 57 198 51
Don Nicolas Capex [$m] - 51 17 2 2
Ollachea Production [koz] - - - 69 103 Corporate G&A -27 -7 -27 -7
Ollachea Cash Costs [$/oz] - - - 690 675 Net Debt (YE) 24 6 24 6
Ollachea Capex [$m] - - 89 89 6
MIRL Consolidt. capex US$m 0 1 90 89 6 Total 171 44 147 38
Exploration [$m] 5 3 - - P/NAV 0.26 0.3 x
Total Gold Production [koz] 25 21 41 122 156 Target Price 0.45x 20
Total Attr.Production [koz] 25 21 28 93 125 Implied upside 75%
C2 Cash Cost [$/oz] 904 979 1,091 690 675
Realised Gold Price ($/oz) 1,413 1,299 1,307 1,338 1,352 Ratios
All-in Costs 1,241 1,360 1,332 936 755 Year End Dec 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Profit & Loss (pre-x) EBITDA Margin 9% -5% 3% 54% 56%
Year End Dec ($m) 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E PBT Margin -13% -18% -34% 40% 38%
Revenues 36 27 20 93 140 PAT margin -20% -13% -24% 28% 27%
Expenses -22 -22 -16 -48 -70 ROCE -3% -3% -2% 9% 14%
SG&A / Other -10 -7 -3 5 8 ROE -5% -3% -4% 20% 24%
EBITDA 3 -1 1 50 78 Net Debt to Equity 20% 62% 187% 208% 149%
Depreciation -6 -1 -2 -6 -19 Interest cover 1 - 0 8 16
PBIT -3 -2 -1 43 59
Net interest -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 Valuation Metrics (CY)
PBT -5 -5 -7 37 54 Year End Dec 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Tax -2 1 2 -11 -16 P/E -4.4 -12.6 -9.5 1.8 1.2
PAT -7 -3 -5 26 38 Dividend Yield (%) - - - - -
Minority interest - - - -2 -3 P/CF (ops) 276.6 -16.0 -2.2 3.2 1.0
Dividend - - - - - EV/SALES 0.7 2.6 9.9 2.9 1.7
Net Earnings -7 -3 -5 24 35 EV/EBITDA 8.2 -54.2 370.5 5.4 3.0
Diluted Shares (m) 174 229 229 229 229 EV/Production ($/oz) 1,064 3,312 6,848 2,875 1,892
EPS (USc) -4.1 -1.5 -2.0 10.6 15.3
DPS - - - - -
Adj EPS (pence) -2.5 -0.9 -1.2 6.2 9.0 Reserves & Resources
Gold Only Equity Tonnes Grade Metal Attr.
Balance Sheet Reserves (P&P) (Mt) (g/t) (Moz) (moz)
Year End Dec ($m) 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Corihuarmi 100% 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Fixed Assets 5 6 93 175 162 Don Nicolas 51% 1.2 5.1 0.2 0.1
Intangibles 125 130 133 133 133 Ollachea 100% 9.3 3.4 1.0 1.0
Cash and cash equivalents 3 15 23 2 2 Total Reserves 10.5 3.6 1.2 1.1
Total Assets 190 230 347 435 445
Total Debt 25 84 218 269 239
Other Liabilities 33 33 25 38 47 Resources (M,I,Inf)
Total Liabilities 58 117 243 307 286 Corihuarmi 100% 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Total Equity 132 113 104 128 159 Don Nicolas 51% 8.4 1.7 0.5 0.2
Net Debt/(Cash) 27 70 195 267 237 Ollachea 100% 24.1 3.5 2.7 2.7
Working capital -10 -10 2 8 9 Total Resources 32.5 3.0 3.1 2.9
Cash flow
Year End Dec ($m) 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E EV/Reserves: ($/t) 60
Working capital Increase 2 -0 12 6 0 EV/Resources (M&I): ($/t) 41
Cashflow from operations 0 -3 -20 13 44 EV/Resources: ($/t) 23
Capex -20 -6 -93 -89 -6
Net Acquisitions / Other -1 -26 -9 5 -8
Cashflow from investing -22 -32 -101 -84 -14
Ordinary shares issued (net) 14 - - - - Key assumptions
Dividends paid - - - - - Year end December 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LT SPOT
Increase in borrowings 5 46 130 49 -30 Gold 1,413 1,299 1,307 1,338 1,352 1,440
Cashflow from financing 19 46 130 49 -30
Net Cash Flow -3 11 8 -21 0
Free cash flow before financing -8 -9 -113 -75 38 Production & Cash Costs
Valuation by Asset
2% 200 1200
78%
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Source: Company data, Canaccord Genuity Limited Estimates
3
03 July 2014
Ollachea feasibility study update
On 4 June, the company released a feasibility study update for its flagship Ollachea
project in Peru. Key points:
1) The optimised underground mine design has enabled some production to be brought
forward. Production in the first two years is now expected to average 100koz per
annum, up from c.70koz previously. Average life of mine production remains
unchanged at c.100koz for nine years.
2) The optimisation study showed that the company has been able to defer US$9.5m of
capex, reducing the pre-production capital needs by 7% to US$165m (from US$178m
and excluding US$12m of working capital requirements).
3) Life-of-mine cash operating costs remain broadly unchanged at US$587/oz vs
US$583/oz previously. As a result of the optimisation work, Minera reported a 17%
rise in NPV (at a 7% discount rate and flat 1,300/oz Au) to US$181m.
Figure 2: Ollachea 2012 DFS vs 2014 update and our estimates
Previous Current
2012 DFS 2014 Update
Estimates Estimates
Mining method u/g u/g u/g u/g
LoM 9 9 9 9
Start up n/a n/a Q1/16 Q2/16
LoM production, Mt
LoM production, Moz 921 930 940 954
Processing style CIL CIL CIL CIL
Mill throughput, Mt/y 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Head grade, g/t 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
Recovery, % 91 91 91 91
Production pa, koz 103 103 104 106
Production in first 2 years, Koz 71 100 80 100
Cash operating cost US$/t* 49 49 49 54
Cash operating cost, US$/oz 499 509 535 578
Total cash costs, US$/oz 583 587 646 683
Pre-production capital, US$m* 178 165 190 177
LoM sustaining capital, US$m 42 51 45 51
NPV @ 7%, US$1300/oz 155 181 156 157
* Our estimates include US$12m of IGV value added tax, which is recoverable in year 1 of production.
Source: Canaccord Genuity Limited Estimates, Technical reports.
Given that costs in the 2014 DFS update were presented in Q3/12 US$, we have allowed
for operating cost inflation of 3% pa from Q3/12 to Q2/16. Our current operating cost
estimates are thus in Q2/16 US$. Our Ollachea NPV estimate remains broadly unchanged
as higher production and lower upfront capex are offset by the assumed operating cost
inflation.
We have not inflated our capital cost estimate as the company believes inflationary
pressures will be offset by the potential cost reductions for equipment and services driven
by the depressed mining development industry.
4
03 July 2014
Ollachea reserves update
The company has been able to refine the geological model and optimise the Minapampa
Zone. As a result, and even after an increase in cut-off grade to 2.1g/t from 2.0g/t, total
Reserves increased by 2% to 1001koz (Figure 2).
Figure 3: Ollachea reserves based on Minapampa zone only
Cut-off Mt Au, g/t Au, koz
2014 2.1 9.2 3.4 1001
2012 2.0 8.7 3.5 983
Source: Minera IRL
Ollachea sensitivities
Below we have presented Ollachea project sensitivities to operational and capital costs
inflation, mine life extension, discount rates and the gold price.
Figure 4: NPV (p/share) sensitivity to mine life and gold price Figure 5: NPV (p/share) sensitivity to discount rate and gold price
Mine life Disocunt rate
38 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 60 0% 3% 5% 7% 10% 13% 15%
1000 8 11 13 15 17 18 19 1000 36 24 18 13 8 3 1
1100 15 19 22 24 27 28 29 1100 50 36 29 23 15 10 7
zo 1200 23 27 30 33 36 37 39 zo 1200 63 47 39 31 23 16 13
/$ 1300 30 36 39 42 45 47 49 /$ 1300 77 59 49 40 30 23 18
S U 1400 37 43 47 50 53 56 58 S U 1400 90 69 58 48 37 28 24
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* CG – Canaccord Genuity forward price deck: rising from $1299/oz in 2014 to $1440/oz from 2019 Source: Canaccord Genuity Limited Estimates
Source: Canaccord Genuity Limited Estimates
We note that a one-year mine life extension adds ~13% or ~5p to our project NPV of 38p
using CG’s forward gold price and a 10% discount rate (see Figure 7 in “Valuation”).
The exploration upside and potential mine life extension are evident given the existence
of the Concurayoc Zone (0.9Moz at 2.8g/t Inferred resource) to the west of the
Minapampa zone. In addition, mineralisation at Ollachea remains open along strike and
down dip.
Figure 6: NPV (p/share) sensitivity to capex and opex inflation
Capex inflation
$m 159 168 177 186 189 195 204
$/oz 38 -10% -5% 0% 5% 7% 10% 15%
640 0% 43 42 41 41 41 40 39
654 1% 42 41 40 40 39 39 38
.ta
lfn 668 2% 41 40 39 38 38 37 37
i
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683 3% 40 39 38 37 37 36 35
ts 713 5% 37 36 35 35 34 34 33
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c 745 7% 35 34 33 32 31 31 30
2 C 796 10% 30 29 28 27 27 26 25
* Using Canaccord Genuity’s forward gold price deck; C2 costs – life of mine average.
Source: Canaccord Genuity Limited Estimates
There is also the possibility of leasing some of the mining equipment reducing the pre-
production capital needs. Of the US$43.7m scheduled to be spent on mining and mining
equipment, we understand at least US$12m worth of equipment could be lease-financed.
This could potentially reduce the upfront capital costs to at least US$165m.
Valuation
We maintain a Speculative Buy recommendation and 20p target price. Our DCF models
for Ollachea, Don Nicolas and Corihuarmi are based on the existing reserves only. To
5
03 July 2014
recognise some of the exploration upside we have included our US$/oz estimate of the
existing resources above the existing reserves (i.e. 1.8Moz at US$17/oz, which equates to
8p unrisked).
Figure 7: Sum-of-the-parts valuation
Valuation summary Price Deck Spot Price
At CG ForwardFlat US$1330/oz
Discount rate US$m p/shr US$m p/shr
Corihuarmi (100%) 5% 3 1 4 1
Don Nicolas (51%) 7% 39 10 37 9
Ollachea (100%) 10% 148 38 126 32
Exploration 31 8 31 8
Total NPV (10%) 221 57 198 51
Corporate G&A -27 -7 -27 -7
Net Debt (YE) 24 6 24 6
Total 171 44 147 38
P/NAV 0.26 0.3 x
Target Price 0.45x 20
Source: Canaccord Genuity Limited Estimates
Key changes
We have made a number of housekeeping changes to our model. The reduction in
2014FY EBITDA is a result of the higher cash costs estimate used comparing to previous
assumptions. We have also adjusted the group’s production for 2015 and 2016 to reflect
guidance on the Don Nicolas and Ollachea commissioning. Our 2015 revenue has also
been affected by the deconsolidation of Don Nicolas.
Figure 8: Key operational and financial changes
2014 2015
New Prev % change New Prev % change
Production koz 21 21 0% 28 68 -58%
Total cash cosUtsS$/oz 979 920 6% 1091 640 70%
Revenue US$m 27 28 -2% 20 127 -85%
EBITDA US$m -1 2 -153% 1 57 -99%
EPS adj USc/shr -2 0 425% -2 -1 153%
* Attributable production
Source: Canaccord Genuity Limited Estimates
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03 July 2014
APPENDIX: IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst Certification: Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity Limited whose name appears on the front page of this research
hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the
authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated investments or
relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the
authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research.
Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be
associated persons of Canaccord Genuity Inc. and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE
Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by
a research analyst account.
Compendium Report If this report covers six or more subject companies, it is a compendium report and Canaccord Genuity and its
affiliated companies hereby direct the reader to the specific disclosures related to the subject companies discussed
in this report, which may be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read
electronically) http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx; or by sending a request to
Canaccord Genuity Corp. Research, Attn: Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street,
Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2; or by sending a request by email to [email protected]. The
reader may also obtain a copy of Canaccord Genuity’s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of
research by following the steps outlined above.
Valuation methodology:
Our target price is based on 0.45x our NAV estimate using CG's forward price deck.
Risks to investment case:
Metal prices may not match our forecasts, and exchange rate fluctuations may impact company earnings. Further,
there are operating risks involved in all mining operations. Technical, environmental, regulatory and political risks
can all impact financial estimates and valuations.
Site visit(s):
An analyst has visited the issuer's material operations in Peru. No payment or reimbursement was received from
the issuer for the related travel costs
7
03 July 2014
Price Chart(s):*
____ Stock price____ Target price
Source: Thomson Reuters and Canaccord Genuity
Date Analyst Rec. Target
Price
30/03/2012 Tim Dudley Buy 130p
24/04/2013 Tim Dudley Buy 50p
21/06/2013 Dmitry Buy 50p
Kalachev
19/08/2013 Dmitry Buy 40p
Kalachev
20/12/2013 Dmitry Buy 22p
Kalachev
15/01/2014 Dmitry Speculative 19p
Kalachev Buy
17/03/2014 Dmitry Speculative 20p
Kalachev Buy
Distribution of Ratings: Coverage Universe
Global Stock Ratings Rating # % IB Clients %
(as of 31 00 2014)
Buy 580 58.7 37.1
Speculative Buy 43 4.4 55.8
Hold 317 32.1 13.2
Sell 45 4.6 4.4
988* 100.0*
*Total includes stocks that are Under Review or Restricted
Canaccord Ratings BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
System: HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.
“Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated
investment or the relevant issuer.
Risk Qualifier: SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria.
Investments in the stock may result in material loss.
Canaccord Research Disclosures as of 3 July 2014
Company Disclosure
Minera 1A, 2, 4, 5, 7
8
03 July 2014
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9
03 July 2014
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